Endgame is estimated to have grossed $350M domestically and $1.2B worldwide on its opening weekend alone. Breaking countless records across the globe in its first two days of release, only to break several more.
— Erik Davis (@ErikDavis) April 28, 2019
Now, we won’t know anything about how front-loaded Endgame is to determine its legs until we see its second weekend drop, but if it was to have the worst multiplier in the franchise (2.28x), it would still make nearly $800M domestically, overthrowing Black Panther. If it was to have a multiplier similar to Infinity War (2.63x), it would gross over $922M. It would be close, but not enough, to take the belt from The Force Awakens ($936,662,225) as the domestic box office champion.
Honestly, we’re in uncharted territory since on top of potentially being incredibly front loaded, Endgame also received a rare Cinemascore of A+. This would conventionally mean that Endgame will have good legs at the box office, since no blockbuster which received an A+ Cinemascore has had a multiplier too far from 3x.
This would mean that Endgame has everything going for it to overtake The Force Awakens domestically. The only exception is that Endgame did not release during the Winter and it’s facing more competition than The Force Awakens did in the following weeks. Pokemon Detective and Godzilla: The King of Monsters may only be speed bumps to Endgame, but they could slow it down regardless.
If Endgame were to perform, at even the average for the franchise (2.76x), it would overtake The Force Awakens with $966M. Over, I do feel like Endgame may be a very front-loaded movie and may get close to surpassing The Force Awakens, but not quite.
So, do you think that Avengers: Endgame has a chance to overtake Star Wars: The Force Awakens at the domestic box office?