While fans in North America are still stuck waiting another week or so for Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 to hit theaters, fans in most of the rest of the world will see the film this weekend, with it already opened in many territories as this article is written. Increasingly, international box office is an important part of a film’s profitability and the likelihood of a sequel. Half a dozen films in the last decade opened disastrously in the USA, only to be saved and made profitable by significant interest overseas. China is becoming a huge part of that picture, sometimes adding $100 million to a box office take.
The Hollywood Reporter is tracking the foreign box office for Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 and things are looking pretty good. The current estimate is $100 million in the first weekend. That ranks above movies like Thor: The Dark World or Doctor Strange, but somewhat below bigger titles like Iron Man 3 or Captain America: Civil War. It is important to remember that those numbers can fluctuate based on which countries are included. Sometimes a film opens essentially worldwide, other times key markets follow later. For example, South Korea was part of the opening haul for Civil War (adding $28.7 million), but doesn’t see Vol. 2 until May 3. (THR lists “North Korea” as a big opening next week, but that’s almost certainly a typo.) Korea, China, and Russia collectively made up 33% of the foreign take of the first installment, and none will be part of the $100 million projection here.
All signs point to Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 being a major jump in box office success for the franchise. The first film was a surprise hit. When discussing the trends in Marvel box office it is always the outlier as far as success for a first film. It’s $773 million take is a kind of tier 1.5, between the billion dollar giants but above the pack hanging out around $600 million. All signs are positive thus far, and MCUExchange’s billion dollar prediction back in January is looking possible.
Source: The Hollywood Reporter