After Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 opened with a incredible $146 million on its opening weekend, many are wondering what this could mean for the other big projects of the year for the company. While Thor: Ragnarok is still further down the line, the biggest question mark is upon Marvel Studios probably most ambitious project, Spider-Man: Homecoming. In reality, this being a co-production between the studios and Sony Entertainment, it leaves a lot of questions open on what we can expect from this project.
The site BoxOfficePro offered a long range forecast that is building up towards the release of Marvel’s next film, which will not see a release until July 7th. Their estimates put the film at a great opening weekend domestically of around $135 million, which would lead to a domestic total of around $325 million. These are very early estimates, so depending on how Sony and Marvel push the film building up, so this is a rather strong estimate before the film really starts pushing out its marketing campaign.
Where does this put the film among its genre? The first comparison could be drawn between the first instalments of the other two incarnations, Spider-Man and The Amazing Spider-Man. If we compare to Toby Maguire’s version that started the characters silver screen career, it opened with a amazing $114 million back in 2002, which lead to a total income of $403 million, making it the most successful domestic release of that year. The Amazing Spider-Man on the other hand saw a subtle $62 million opening weekend that lead to a $262 million domestic Box Office sum.
This puts Homecoming with a higher opening weekend overall, but by these estimates it will not reach the high domestic total that Maguire‘s entry managed to achieve 15 years ago. These estimates put it on par with other Marvel Cinematic Universe entries, as it would make slightly more than Iron Man‘s total domestic of $318 million. The opening would make it the highest first franchise entry, as it surpasses the first ever entry into the MCU’s $98 million, Guardians of the Galaxy surprise $94 million and Doctor Strange‘s $85 million. If the franchise can start off achieving its early forecast, it will make quite a mark in Marvel Studios’ productions.
While this does not ensure the film will manage to pass $1 billion at the Box Office, Spider-Man films have proven to have good legs and with the now titled “Marvel Bump”, which was also known as the “Avenger Effect” during Phase 2, it could potentially break a few records for the studio. The largest question looming above this production is who will profit the most from this film. It is a co-production between Marvel Studios and Sony, so they will have to share the total income. Marvel may potentially end up having the highest profit from this project, as Sony sold back the merchandising rights to the character and Spider-Man is one of the most profitable merchandising characters globally.
What are your thoughts on the estimate? Who do you think will profit the most from the project?